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全球适合Lycorma delicatula的地区基于一个优化的Maxent模型

Zhengxue Zhao^1,2,3,4, Lin Yang^1,2,3, Xiangsheng Chen^1,2,3

¹Institute of Entomology Guizhou University Guiyang China.

Ecology and evolution

|September 23, 2024

概括

预计侵入性斑点 (Lycorma delicatula) 将在全球范围内扩大其适合的息地,特别是在北方. 最干燥的季度的平均温度是其分布的一个关键限制因素.

科学领域:

侵入性物种生物学生物学
生态建模生态建模
气候变化影响评估

背景情况:

斑点虫 (Lycorma delicatula) 是一种严重的入侵性害虫,造成了广泛的经济损失.
有效的管理策略需要准确预测物种的潜在分布.
目前对斑点灯的全球生态利基的理解是有限的.

研究的目的:

预测Lycorma delicatula目前和未来的全球分布情况.
确定影响其分布的关键环境变量.
为了告知害虫管理和控制策略.

主要方法:

使用Maxent模型与事件记录和环境变量.
使用修正的Akaike信息标准优化模型参数.
根据当前和未来的气候场景 (2041-2100) 预测适合的地区.

主要成果:

最干燥的季度的平均温度被确定为最关键的环境变量.
目前适合的地区包括东亚,美国中部/东部和南欧.
未来的气候场景预测适合地区的增加,可能会向北扩张.

结论:

预计在未来的气候变化下,斑点灯的合适息地将大幅扩大.
适合地区向北扩张是需要监测的关键趋势.
优先考虑高风险地区的病虫害管理对于减轻经济损失至关重要.

关键词:

莱科玛 (Lycorma) 微妙的植物.马克森特模型模型气候变化气候变化气候变化侵袭性害虫侵袭性害虫是一种入侵性的害虫.害虫管理害虫管理害虫管理适合的区域,适合的地区.

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