地平线上的麻烦:通过未来的思维来预测生物入侵
1Bioprotection Aotearoa, Department of Pest-Management and Conservation, Lincoln University, PO Box 85084, Christchurch, Canterbury, 7648, New Zealand.
Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society
|September 23, 2024
概括
积极的生物安全需要战略预见,以管理入侵性外来物种. 整合各种利益相关者的未来思维工具对于有效的预防和政策制定至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态与环境科学 生态与环境科学
- 生物安全和入侵物种管理
- 战略预测和未来研究研究.
背景情况:
- 通过预测未来的生物安全威胁,管理外来入侵物种是最有效的.
- 生物入侵是复杂和不确定的,往往导致反应性,后入侵管理.
- 由于短期决策的重点,目前的预防措施取得了有限的成功.
研究的目的:
- 评估四种未来思维工具 (环境扫描,驱动测绘,地平线扫描,情景规划) 对生物安全和入侵物种研究和政策的潜力.
- 突出在最小化生物安全威胁方面需要战略前性.
- 倡导一个综合的方法,以未来的思维,涉及不同的利益相关者.
主要方法:
- 评估环境扫描,驱动器映射,地平线扫描和场景规划,以应用于生物入侵.
- 分析这些工具中的当前方法,包括自动扫描,专家评分,预测市场和结构化场景规划.
- 识别当前方法的局限性,例如信号检测问题,依赖先前的知识,缺乏利益相关者的参与.
主要成果:
- 环境扫描面临着"噪音"和识别"未知未知"的挑战.
- 驱动器映射为识别干预点和未来的大趋势提供了潜力,但未得到充分利用.
- 地平线扫描需要更大的多样性来检测真正的新型威胁,场景规划可以从更直观的方法中受益.
结论:
- 现有的未来思维工具在孤立地应用于生物入侵时具有局限性.
- 需要加强与决策者和利益相关者的接触,以将未来的思考转化为政策和管理优先事项.
- 综合,包括利益相关者在内的未来思维方法对于有效的国家和全球生物安全预测至关重要.
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