根据CMIP6预测,伊朗东北部的极端温度在不久的将来会发生变化
Sanaz Chamanehfar1, Mohammad Mousavi Baygi1, Fereshteh Modaresi2
1Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|September 23, 2024
概括
气候变化将增加伊朗东北部的极端高温,影响植物生长. 预测显示,最高气温和夏季天气显著上升,导致农业用水需求增加,作物产量减少.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 极端气温显著影响植物生长和农业生产率.
- 气候变化正在改变全球温度模式,需要进行区域影响评估.
研究的目的:
- 通过CMIP6预测,评估气候变化对伊朗东北部极端温度指数 (TEI) 的影响.
- 为了评估特定的指数,如最大的最高温度 (TXx),最低的最低温度 (TNn),寒冷的夜晚 (TN10p),温暖的夜晚 (TN90p) 和夏日 (SU25).
主要方法:
- 在三个共享社会经济路径 (SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5) 下,利用了来自三个地球系统模型 (ACCESS-CM2,MIROC6,MRI-ESM2-0) 的预测.
- 将2026-2050年的预测与历史时期 (1989-2014) 的预测进行比较.
- 应用统计测试来分析温度极端指数的平均值和趋势的变化.
主要成果:
- 该MRI-ESM2-0模型在投影方面表现出卓越的效率.
- 所有模型和场景都预测到2050年,TXx (1.6-2.4°C) 和SU25 (15-18天) 的显著增加.
- 观察到温暖夜晚 (TN90p) 的显著上升趋势和寒冷夜晚 (TN10p) 的下降趋势.
结论:
- 预计的极端温度将增加伊朗东北部的蒸发和农业用水需求.
- 预计这些气候变化将对主要作物的产量产生负面影响,例如小麦和藏红花.
- 适应战略对于减轻气候变化对区域农业的不利影响至关重要.
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