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一种风险预测模型,用于老年人新发慢性病的风险预测模型
Wei Luo1,2, Li Lei3, Jinchuan Lai4
1Department of Cardiology, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China, lvllllweiwei@163.com.
American journal of nephrology
|September 23, 2024
概括
一个新的风险模型确定了患慢性病 (CKD) 的高风险的老年人. 这种工具有助于早期检测和干预,以防止老年人功能恶化.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學專業.
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 对老年人来说,恶化功能是一个重要的健康问题.
- 新发性慢性病 (CKD) 对这一群体构成重大风险.
- 开发有效的预测工具对于积极主动的医疗保健至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 构建一个简单而有效的风险预测模型,用于老年人新发性CKD.
- 确定老年人口中CKD发展的关键预测因素.
- 为了促进风险老年患者的早期鉴定和干预.
主要方法:
- 一项回顾性队列研究包括5,416名老年居民 (≥65岁),他们在2017年至2021年期间至少进行了两次体检.
- 新发病的CKD被定义为估计的膜过率 (eGFR) <60mL/min/1.73m2.
- 多变量考克斯回归和逐步选择确定了预测因素;模型性能使用C指数和AUC进行评估,并进行外部验证.
主要成果:
- 新发性CKD的发病率为20.1%,平均随访时间为2.3年.
- 确定的主要预测因素是年龄,女性性别,糖尿病,高甘油和基线EGFR.
- 该模型显示出强大的预测性能 (C指数=0.802),2至4年的AUC预测范围从0.829到0.839;外部验证得出2年的AUC为0.735.
结论:
- 开发了一种简单有效的风险预测模型,用于老年人新发性CKD.
- 该模型能够迅速识别患有功能衰退风险的老年人.
- 早期识别有助于在初级保健机构及时进行干预.
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