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在最新的多模型气候预测中,准共振放大和持续的夏季极端天气变化的预测变化增加
Sullyandro O Guimarães1,2, Michael E Mann3, Stefan Rahmstorf4,5
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany. sullyandro@pik-potsdam.de.
Scientific reports
|September 23, 2024
概括
预计与夏季极端天气相关的准共振放大 (QRA) 事件将由于人为变暖而显著增加. 气候模型显示QRA指数大幅上升,特别是在高排放场景下.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候建模气候模型
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
背景情况:
- 与准共振放大 (QRA) 相关的高振幅大气罗斯比波与北半球持续的夏季极端天气有关.
- 当前的气候模型难以准确地表示QRA,需要使用其他评估方法.
研究的目的:
- 用半经验方法预测未来QRA事件的发生情况.
- 在不同的排放场景下,将CMIP5和CMIP6气候模型之间的QRA预测进行比较.
主要方法:
- 利用以前开发的基于指纹的半经验方法.
- 从区域平均的表面温度场得出QRA指数.
- 从CMIP5 (RCP8.5) 和CMIP6 (SSP5-8.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP3-7.0-低NTCF) 模型中的预测进行比较.
主要成果:
- 大多数模型预测QRA指数会大幅增加.
- 与CMIP5-RCP8.5 (60%的模型) 相比,CMIP6-SSP5-8.5模拟显示了更大的增加 (85%的模型).
- 在CMIP6-SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF中预计的气溶减少暂时停止了QRA指数和北极放大.
结论:
- 人为变暖可能会显著增加QRA事件和相关的夏季极端天气.
- 未来的QRA事件频率对排放场景和气溶变化敏感.
- 与CMIP5.5相比,CMIP6模型通常表明QRA事件的增加更明显.
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