复合鱼模型的应用,以估计在欠发达地区报告不足的非传染性疾病风险
Hongli Wan1, Wenhui Zhu1, Jingmin Yan1
1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan Province, China.
One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
|September 24, 2024
概括
高血压和糖尿病在梁山等欠发达地区非常普遍,注册率低. 一个新的模型 (CPM-CDQ) 有助于估计真正的疾病患病率,并为非传染性疾病 (NCD) 的资源分配提供信息.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 非传染性疾病 (NCD),包括高血压和糖尿病,不成比例地影响欠发达地区.
- 在像中国的梁山这样的地区,医疗资源有限,导致疾病患病率报告不足.
- 准确的疾病负担估计对于有效的公共卫生干预和资源分配至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计在梁山义自治县的高血压和2型糖尿病的真实患病率.
- 评估该地区高血压和糖尿病患者的登记率.
- 为在面临高NCD负担的欠发达地区优化医疗资源分配提供见解.
主要方法:
- 应用基于数据质量聚类 (CPM-CDQ) 的复合Poisson模型来估计疾病流行率.
- 利用等级分类来按数据质量分组县,以告知模型参数.
- 在模型参数估计中使用最大概率估计,并进行灵敏度分析.
主要成果:
- 在梁山 (2018-2020年) 估计的高血压患病率在24.59%至25.28%之间.
- 在同一时期,估计的糖尿病患病率在4.95%至8.42%之间.
- 注册率很低,高血压的14.10%-24.59%,糖尿病的15.98%-29.12%之间.
结论:
- 梁山县的高血压和糖尿病患病率较高,患者登记率较低.
- CPM-CDQ模型有效地识别了NCD监测中报告不足的风险.
- 研究结果支持针对性的干预措施,并改善了在类似欠发达环境中对NCD控制的资源配置.
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