追踪耐药结核病:对全球,区域和国家趋势的30年分析
Hui-Wen Song1,2,3, Jian-Hua Tian1, Hui-Ping Song1
1Department of Infectious Diseases, Sanming First Hospital Affiliated to Fujian Medical University, Sanming, Fujian, China.
Frontiers in public health
|September 25, 2024
概括
多药耐药结核病 (MDR-TB) 构成了全球严重的健康负担,特别是在社会人口指数较低的地区. 预测表明发病率和死亡率正在上升,需要紧急,有针对性的干预措施来对抗这种有弹性的疾病.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 多药耐药结核病 (MDR-TB) 仍然是一个关键的全球卫生挑战.
- 了解其负担,趋势和风险因素对于有效的控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析多方面的负担,趋势,风险和MDR-TB的未来预测.
- 为MDR-TB控制提供有针对性的干预措施和资源分配的信息.
主要方法:
- 利用的全球疾病负担 (GBD) 2019年数据,以残疾调整的寿命年 (DALYs),死亡率和发病率.
- 用于趋势分析的就业joinpoint回归 (年平均百分比变化 - AAPC).
- 应用年龄周期队列建模 (APCM) 和Nordpred模型用于发病率和死亡率预测.
主要成果:
- 在社会人口指数 (SDI) 较低的地区,MDR-TB负担较高,DALY增加了7%以上 (1990-2019).
- 2019年,MDR-TB造成了420万个DALY,印度,俄罗斯和中国受到影响最大;预计发生率将增加 (2020-2030年).
- 酒精消费成为一个重要的风险因素,超过了吸烟和高葡萄糖,在2019年贡献了700万个DALY.
结论:
- 为了在2030年之前消除结核病 (TB),制定强有力的战略至关重要.
- 干预措施必须优先考虑较低的SDI地区,并解决酒精消费等关键风险因素.
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