预测美国陆军士兵在退役后的自杀率
Chris J Kennedy1, Jaclyn C Kearns2,3, Joseph C Geraci4,5,6,7
1Department of Psychiatry, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston.
JAMA psychiatry
|September 25, 2024
概括
军事自杀风险可以预测使用行政数据在服务人员离开现役之前. 该模型识别了针对性预防自杀干预的高风险个体.
科学领域:
- 军队的医疗卫生.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数据科学是数据科学.
背景情况:
- 军人自杀率在服役后显著增加.
- 早期识别高风险的服务人员对于干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发美国陆军士兵过渡到平民生活中自杀风险的预测模型.
- 使用行政数据来预测自杀事件 1-120个月后服务.
主要方法:
- 使用美国陆军士兵 (2010-2019) 综合行政数据库进行预测研究.
- 机器学习模型 (Lasso,超级学习者) 被训练来预测自杀.
- 在30%的保留样本上进行验证.
主要成果:
- 一个拉索模型准确地预测了服务后的10年自杀率.
- 主要预测因素包括社会人口统计学,职业特征和精神病理学.
- 风险最高的前10%的士兵占所有自杀的30-46%.
结论:
- 行政数据可以有效地预测过渡士兵的长期自杀风险.
- 基于模型的预防策略显示了积极的净收益.
- 需要进一步研究干预的成本效益.
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