自公元881年以来,修订阿尔卑斯山夏季温度
Eileen Kuhl1, Jan Esper1,2, Lea Schneider3
1Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Johann-Joachim-Becher Weg 32, 55128 Mainz, Germany.
Climate dynamics
|September 26, 2024
概括
一个新的阿尔卑斯山树环记录揭示了重要的工业化前气候变化,包括中世纪晚期的寒冷时期和公元1258年最寒冷的夏季. 这项研究为了解最近的欧洲热浪和全球变暖趋势提供了关键的背景.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 登德罗年代学 登德罗年代学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 欧洲面临越来越多的热浪,需要从工业化前的气候变化中得到背景.
- 了解过去的温暖季节变化对于评估全球变暖下的当前趋势和极端情况至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在瑞士阿尔卑斯山使用树环重建过去的温暖季节温度.
- 为西欧提供高分辨率的长期气候记录.
- 在更广泛的历史气候框架内将最近的欧洲热浪置于背景中.
主要方法:
- 从瑞士阿尔卑斯山的352棵树 (Larix decidua) 开发出一个最大木密度 (MXD) 时间表.
- 利用机器学习,使用历史木材样本将时间表延伸到公元881年.
- 与西欧5月至8月气温 (r=0.8) 相比,对时间表进行校准.
主要成果:
- 新的阿尔卑斯山记录显示,10世纪的气候变暖,随后是中世纪后期寒冷的时期.
- 一个不那么明显的小冰河时代在18世纪10年代达到顶峰,之前是长期的人为变暖.
- 公元1258年夏天被重建为西欧最冷的夏天,可能与萨马拉斯火山喷发有关.
结论:
- 阿尔卑斯山MXD记录提供了一个强大的,高保真重建过去的欧洲温暖季节的温度.
- 这一新纪录克服了现有重建中的差异偏差,为现场控制和验证设定了新的标准.
- 这些发现增强了我们对自然气候变异性及其在极端事件中的作用的理解.
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