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根据年龄和原因的温度死亡率关联:一个多个国家多个城市的研究
Noah Scovronick1, Francesco Sera2,3, Bryan Vu1,4
1Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta.
Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.)
|September 26, 2024
概括
环境温度显著影响死亡率,心血管和呼吸道原因的风险更高,特别是在老年人中. 极端寒冷带来了最大的心血管风险,而极端热量增加了呼吸道死亡风险.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 由于人口结构和脆弱性差异,温度与死亡率的关系在全球范围内有所不同.
- 这项研究代表了对环境温度和按年龄和原因的死亡率进行的最大规模的流行病学调查.
研究的目的:
- 调查不同年龄组和死亡原因之间的环境温度和死亡率之间的关联.
- 在全球范围内按原因和年龄量化与温度相关的死亡风险.
主要方法:
- 利用来自33个国家的532个城市的每日温度和死亡率数据.
- 采用准波桑回归和多变量元回归来估计特定位置和聚合温度死亡率的关联.
- 分析了按年龄组和死亡原因 (心血管,呼吸,非心肺呼吸) 分层的死亡数据.
主要成果:
- 与非心血管和呼吸道原因相比,心血管和呼吸道原因的温度相关死亡风险较高.
- 与寒冷相关的死亡风险在心血管原因中最高;与热有关的风险在呼吸道原因中最高.
- 死亡风险通常随着年龄的增长而增加,特别是对寒冷暴露和非心肺呼吸道原因,最年长的年龄组 (85岁以上) 在两种极端温度下都有最高的风险.
结论:
- 在温度死亡风险中存在显著的年龄和因果特异性变化.
- 心肺呼吸道疾病比非心肺呼吸道疾病更容易受到极端温度的影响.
- 老年人面临着不成比例的高死亡风险,无论是热还是冷,过度死亡率在这个人口群体中暴露于寒冷中最高.
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