与年龄相关的驾驶员伤害发生在曲线级合并段的碰撞中
Hellen Shita1, Norris Novat2, Francisca Kasubi1
1Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Florida International University, Miami, Florida.
Traffic injury prevention
|September 26, 2024
概括
年长的司机在复杂的道路上面临着更高的受伤风险,特别是在高峰时间或不受约束的时间. 针对性安全措施对于青少年和老年司机来说至关重要,以减少在充满挑战的道路上发生碰撞的伤害.
科学领域:
- 交通安全 交通安全 交通安全
- 道路工程工程的道路工程.
- 驾驶员行为分析分析
背景情况:
- 水平和垂直曲线呈现出复杂的驾驶环境,可见度降低,翻车风险增加.
- 之前的研究已经分别分析了年轻和老年司机在这些环境中的风险.
研究的目的:
- 调查驾驶员年龄与在曲线等级组合段上的碰撞中受伤发生的关系.
- 为了确定特定于年龄的风险因素,有助于在复杂的道路几何形状中的碰撞伤害.
主要方法:
- 利用俄俄州2012-2017年的车祸数据,将司机分为青少年 (<20岁),成年人 (20-64岁) 和老年人 (>64岁) 组.
- 采用机器学习模型 (随机森林,梯度提升,XGBoost) 来预测受伤概率.
- 使用AUROC进行模型选择和PDP进行结果解释.
主要成果:
- 伤害概率在各年龄组之间有很大的差异.
- 青少年和成年驾驶员在曲率较高时出现受伤风险增加;老年驾驶员在度较高,AADT较高和更多乘客时面临更高的风险.
- 年长的司机在高峰时段和不受约束时更有可能受伤.
结论:
- 调查结果强调,需要针对复杂道路上的青少年和老年司机采取有针对性的安全干预措施.
- 结果为决策者和交通安全专家提供了有关制定战略以保护弱势年龄组的信息.
- 这项研究有助于了解曲线级合并段上的撞车事故中与年龄相关的受伤模式.
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