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碎片流危害的易感性评估基于游戏理论组合权重-正常云模型
1Henan Planning Design & Research Institute Co. Ltd., Zhengzhou, Henan, China.
PloS one
|September 26, 2024
概括
本研究介绍了一种游戏理论组合权重-正常云模型,用于评估碎片流的易感性. 这种新的方法实现了100%的准确性,显著超过了预测碎片流危险的现有模型.
科学领域:
- 地质科学 地质科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 风险评估 风险评估
背景情况:
- 对碎片流的易感性评估对于保护生命和财产至关重要.
- 在复杂的地质环境中,传统方法可能缺乏准确性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种用于评估碎片流感性的新型模型.
- 为了提高碎片流危险预测的准确性和可靠性.
主要方法:
- 应用一个游戏理论组合权重-正常云模型的应用.
- 使用七个关键评估指数:供应部分的长度比,主要沟的纵向斜率,山坡,流域面积,相对差异,植被覆盖面和每日最大降雨量.
- 使用云模型计算索引权重系数并确定会员级别.
主要成果:
- 拟议的模型在八个不同的峡谷的敏感性评估中实现了100%的准确性.
- 结果显示与实际现场调查一致.
- 该模型显著优于灰色扩展模型 (62.5%的准确性).
结论:
- 游戏理论组合加权-正常云模型提供了一个非常准确和可靠的方法来评估碎片流的易感性.
- 该模型有效预测易感度水平,并对危险等级进行排名.
- 这种方法为未来的垃圾流危险研究和实际应用提供了新的方法.
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