预后模型的性能取决于缺失值归算算法的选择:一个模拟研究
Manja Deforth1, Georg Heinze2, Ulrike Held1
1Department of Biostatistics at the Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Journal of clinical epidemiology
|September 26, 2024
概括
像老鼠和aregImpute这样的多重归算方法是处理临床预测模型中缺失的预测值的可靠选择,即使在复杂的数据中也提供良好的性能. 这些方法改善了模型校准和在数据不完整时的歧视.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
- 临床预测建模 临床预测建模
背景情况:
- 缺少预测值经常阻碍了强大的临床预测模型的开发.
- 现有的归算方法的复杂性各不相同,从简单的单一归算到使用链式方程的高级多重归算技术.
- 机器学习算法和灵活建模越来越多地被整合到归算策略中.
研究的目的:
- 在临床预测模型开发的背景下,评估不同缺失值归算方法的比较性能.
- 为了确定特定的归算算法是否在各种性能指标中始终优于其他算法.
主要方法:
- 模拟开发和验证队伍模拟真实数据分布.
- 在36个失踪场景下,应用了三种基于R的归算算法:小鼠,aregImpute和missForest.
- 使用Brier分数,c统计,校准和预测错误评估模型性能,与完整数据分析进行比较.
主要成果:
- 没有任何归算方法完全复制了完整数据的性能;完整的案例分析表现最差.
- aregImpute和小鼠 (100次归算) 在不同场景中表现出最高的预测准确度.
- aregImpute显著实现了接近1的校准斜率,在这个方面甚至超过了完整的数据分析.
结论:
- 模型校准对归算方法的选择比对歧视更敏感.
- 多种归算方法,特别是小鼠和 aregImpute,是强大的,并建议处理预测模型中缺少的数据.
- 这些方法有效地管理线性和非线性预测器-结果关联,提供可靠的结果.
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