概率的逐步更新既不是普遍的,也不是完全由动力成本来解释的
Julia Schirmeister1, Britt Anderson2,3
1Psychology, University of Waterloo, 200 University Ave., Waterloo, N2L 3G1, ON, Canada. jschirme@uwaterloo.ca.
Psychonomic bulletin & review
|September 26, 2024
概括
人民的人民的人民.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 决策科学科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 人类的期望通常基于过去的数据.
- 调整期望以适应不断变化的环境对于决策至关重要.
- 之前的研究表明间歇性的概率更新,可能是由于电机成本.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查间歇性概率更新是否在移除动力响应混后仍然存在.
- 要区分机动诱导和故意更新策略.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种新的实验程序,以平衡更新和维护概率估计的电机成本.
- 在旨在隔离认知更新过程的条件下记录了参与者的概率估计.
主要成果:
- 虽然发动机成本影响了更新频率,但即使发动机精力相当,间歇性更新模式仍然存在.
- 删除默认响应选项导致了在集团层面更频繁的更新.
- 更新频率的个体差异仍然存在,一些参与者很少更新,而另一些则经常更新,不管电机成本如何.
结论:
- 间歇性概率更新不仅仅是实验室环境中运动响应成本的工件.
- 蓄意更新频率表明个人之间存在显著的异质性.
- 这些发现挑战了纯粹的变化点模型,并突出了个人决策策略在概率更新中的作用.
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