在新出现的流行病或流行病期间为决策者提供开源建模和模拟工具 - 系统性评估实用性和可用性:范围审查更新
Rebecca Sophia Lais1, Julia Fitzner2, Yeon-Kyeng Lee2,3
1Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Charitéplatz 1, 10117 Berlin, Germany.
Dialogues in health
|September 27, 2024
概括
开源的流行病学建模工具有助于在流行病期间的决策. 这些工具虽然用户友好,但需要在数据集成和地理细节方面进行改进,以加强疫情应对.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 卫生系统研究 卫生系统研究
背景情况:
- COVID-19大流行突显了全球卫生系统的脆弱性.
- 新出现的传染病和流行病构成了持续的威胁,挑战了基于证据的准备.
- 流行病学建模是卫生危机期间为决策提供信息的关键工具.
研究的目的:
- 为新兴流行病和流行病确定开源的流行病学建模工具.
- 评估这些可供决策者使用的工具的实用性和用户友好性.
主要方法:
- 进行了范围审查,以确定相关研究.
- 搜索包括同行评审和灰色文献数据库,搜索引擎和专家咨询.
- 29个流行病学建模工具使用五点评分尺度进行了定性评估.
主要成果:
- 确定了66种流行病学建模工具,其中29种被纳入评估.
- 这些工具在用户友好性方面表现出良好的基线,但在功能和实用性方面存在差异.
- 需要改进的领域包括整合外部数据,详细的人口描述和地理分辨率.
结论:
- 流行病学建模工具可以增强决策,当根据用户的需求和目的量身定制.
- 未来的发展应侧重于明确沟通不确定性和专家审查.
- 建议对这些工具进行批判性咨询,而不是盲目坚持.
相关概念视频
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
108
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
108
Statistical Software for Data Analysis and Clinical Trials
509
Statistical software is pivotal in data analysis and clinical trials by providing tools to analyze data, draw conclusions, and make predictions. These software packages range from simple data management applications to complex analytical platforms, supporting various statistical tests, models, and simulation techniques. Their significance lies in their ability to handle vast amounts of data with precision and efficiency, enabling researchers to validate hypotheses, identify trends, and make...
509
Applications of GIS: Disaster Management and Emergency Response
63
Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is essential for risk identification, action prioritization, and resource optimization in critical situations like flooding and earthquakes. By integrating spatial and demographic data, GIS provides a comprehensive framework for emergency response.GIS integrates data layers, like rainfall intensity, topography, elevation profiles, and river levels, to model high-risk flood zones. These layers assess areas susceptible to flooding based on their...
63
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
316
Epidemiological data primarily involves information on specific populations' occurrence, distribution, and determinants of health and diseases. This data is crucial for understanding disease patterns and impacts, aiding public health decision-making and disease prevention strategies. The analysis of epidemiological data employs various statistical methods to interpret health-related data effectively. Here are some commonly used methods:
316
Econometric Views (EViews)
122
Econometric Views, often stylized as EViews, is a package that merges statistical analysis with econometric studies. It is designed to provide tools for time series analysis, forecasting, and econometric model simulation. The software originated from MicroTSP software and has evolved significantly since its inception in 1981. The history of EViews is marked by a continuous effort to enhance its computational speed and user interface. It was initially developed for large computing systems but...
122
Manipulation and Analysis
22
GIS manipulation and analysis functions are vital for decision-making and planning. These activities range from data retrieval tasks, such as selecting information based on specific criteria, to advanced analytical techniques that address complex spatial problems.One critical GIS analysis method is overlaying, which combines multiple data layers to examine impacts. For example, overlaying a river-dammed lake boundary with road networks can identify affected infrastructure. Another common...
22


