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基于异质数据和集团决策的城市洪水弹性评估
Xiang He1, Yanzhu Hu1, Xiaojun Yang2
1School of Intelligent Engineering and Automation, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|September 27, 2024
概括
中国的城市抗洪能力正在改善,从2017年到2021年增加了14.1%. 本研究引入了一种新的混合方法,通过复杂的数据和决策技术来评估和增强城市的抗洪能力.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 城市洪水在中国越来越频繁,需要加强城市洪水抗灾能力.
- 现有的评估方法与异质数据和集团决策复杂性作斗争.
- 压力-状态-响应-社会-经济-自然复杂生态系统 (PSR-SENCE) 模型为了解城市抗洪能力提供了一个框架.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种混合的多标准集团决策方法来评估城市的抗洪能力.
- 整合异质数据源,解决评估过程中的不确定性.
- 为改善城市抗洪能力提供理论基础和实际指导.
主要方法:
- 这是一种混合方法,结合了集团决策,PSR-SENCE模型和异质数据分析.
- 基于PSR-SENCE模型的定性和定量指标系统的开发.
- 引入综合权重组分析层次流程 (SW-GAHP) 用于指标权重和扩展组决策技术 (EGDMT) 用于定性数据评估.
- 使用灵活参数化映射函数 (FPMF) 进行定量指标和用于不确定性管理的正常云模型.
主要成果:
- 拟议的方法从2017年到2021年被应用于北京,表明城市抗洪能力每年都在持续改善.
- 在评估期间,城市抗洪能力显著增加了14.1%.
- 为有利和不利的指标提供了优化建议,包括洪水风险和人口密度.
结论:
- 开发的混合方法有效地使用异质数据和集团决策来评估城市的抗洪能力.
- 该方法与现有技术相比,提供了一种强大而优越的方法,比较和灵敏度分析表明.
- 这些发现提供了有价值的理论基础和实际决策指南,以提高城市的抗洪能力.
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