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在土耳其的Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) 的时空集群分析和最大模型
Tuba Bayir1, İsmayil Safa Gürcan2
1Department of Biometrics, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Fırat University, Elazığ, Türkiye, Turkey. tuubabayir@gmail.com.
Tropical animal health and production
|September 27, 2024
概括
土耳其的小反动物瘟疫 (PPR) 疫情显示出显著的时空聚类. 高度,绵羊密度和气候变量是关键的风险因素,有助于疾病控制策略.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 空间分析 空间分析
- 疾病生态学 疾病生态学
背景情况:
- 小反动物瘟疫 (PPR) 是一种严重的跨境疾病,影响绵羊和山羊.
- 对于小型反动物养殖来说,PPR构成了严重的经济威胁.
研究的目的:
- 确定在土耳其的PPR的风险概率和时空集群.
- 分析影响PPR爆发的环境因素.
主要方法:
- 使用地理信息系统 (GIS) 和空间分析.
- 最大模型 (Maxent) 评估了环境影响.
- 追溯的时空扫描统计数据确定了疾病集群.
主要成果:
- 在2017-2019年期间记录了337次PPR爆发和18467例病例.
- 中亚纳托利亚地区的疫情发生率最高.
- 确定了19个显著的时空星团 (p < 0.001).
结论:
- 土耳其的PPR疫情呈现出明显的时空模式.
- 高度,羊群密度,6月降水和最温暖的季节温度是重要的风险因素.
- 这些发现支持针对PPR的有针对性的预防和控制措施.
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