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推迟选秀:对AFL选秀的实证分析
Jemuel Chandrakumaran1, Paul Larkin1,2, Sam McIntosh1,3
1Institute for Health and Sport (IHES), Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia.
PloS one
|September 27, 2024
概括
这项研究介绍了澳大利亚足球联盟 (AFL) 选秀选秀的折扣率函数,揭示了球队经常高估当前选秀. 推迟选秀可以最大限度地提高他们的价值,正如拟议的折扣率模型所示.
科学领域:
- 运动分析 运动分析
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 球员评价 球员评价
背景情况:
- 球员交易,特别是未来的选秀,在像澳大利亚足球联盟 (AFL) 这样的职业体育联盟中很普遍.
- 确定适合未来选择的贴现率对于公平和战略性交易至关重要.
- 现有的贸易实践表明,未来的草拟资产可能被低估.
研究的目的:
- 建议和验证AFL选秀的折扣率函数.
- 分析球员第一赛季和整个职业生涯之间的球员贡献差异,以确定折扣率.
- 评估折扣未来选择对贸易价值和决策的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发基于球员从第一赛季到AFL职业生涯总贡献的差异的折扣率函数.
- 应用该函数来分析历史的AFL选秀交易.
- 在四年时间内模拟折扣选项的影响.
主要成果:
- 鉴定出一个不同的折扣率,从42%到51%,随着草案的进展而下降.
- 在四年内,折扣选项显著减少了由于球员退市而导致的选项价值差异.
- 历史贸易分析表明,各方通常会将未来的选择折扣高达120%,优先考虑即时回报.
结论:
- 建议的折扣率函数提供了一个数据驱动的方法来评估AFL选秀.
- 与未来的选秀相比,球队倾向于高估当前的选秀.
- 旨在最大限度地提高选择价值的战略决策者应该考虑推迟当年的选择.
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