公共部门就业刚性和宏观经济波动:中国的DSGE模拟
1Institute of Economics, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Shanghai, China.
PloS one
|September 27, 2024
概括
中国的非周期性公共部门就业加剧了经济波动. 采用前周期性公共部门工资可以减轻失业率,并在经济衰退期间支持创造就业机会,特别是在COVID-19后.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 宏观经济学 宏观经济学
- 劳动经济学 劳动经济学
背景情况:
- 中国的公共部门就业以非周期性招聘和工资为特征,对经济波动反应不大.
- 在COVID-19后,由于经济不确定性,受过教育的求职者对稳定的政府工作的需求增加了.
- 严格的公共部门就业政策可能会对宏观经济产生重大影响.
研究的目的:
- 调查严格的公共部门就业对宏观经济稳定的影响.
- 分析不同政府就业政策的影响,使用动态随机总平衡 (DSGE) 模型与搜索与匹配 (S&M) 理论.
- 在后COVID时代,为灵活的公共部门工资机制提供理论支持.
主要方法:
- 使用了一个动态随机总平衡 (DSGE) 模型.
- 将搜索与匹配 (S&M) 理论集成到模型中.
- 进行了与政府替代就业政策的模拟和假设场景分析.
主要成果:
- 非周期性公共就业加剧了宏观经济周期性波动.
- 公共部门工资相对于企业工资的低弹性增加了自愿失业率,并减少了劳动力供应.
- 支持周期性的公共部门工资政策可以减轻企业削减工资的障碍,并在经济衰退期间刺激创造就业机会.
结论:
- 维持非周期性公共部门工资可能会导致长期失业和经济衰退,即使招聘增加.
- 采用前循环的公共部门工资可以减少失业的规模和持续时间.
- 建议建立一个与市场状况相关的透明和灵活的公共部门工资调整机制,特别是在COVID后的经济环境中.
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