使用机器学习方法评估城市化对森林碳储量和社会成本的影响
Dong Yeong Chang1, Sujong Jeong1, Jaewon Shin1
1Department of Environmental Planning, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
The Science of the total environment
|September 27, 2024
概括
城市化导致韩国城市的森林大量丧失和碳库存减少. 有效的城市森林管理对于减轻扩大大都会地区的气候变化影响至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 森林生态 森林生态
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 城市化推动了土地利用的变化,影响了城市的碳库存.
- 城市扩张导致森林砍伐和景观变化.
- 了解这些影响对于减缓气候变化至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了量化城市森林碳库存的变化,由于城市化在十个韩国城市超过15年.
- 评估与城市碳库存转移相关的社会成本.
- 确定影响碳库存波动和封存效率的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 利用机器学习和高分辨率卫星图像来分析土地利用和城市森林变化.
- 来自国家森林的综合区域数据用于增强碳库存估计.
- 基于估计的碳库存损失计算的社会成本.
主要成果:
- 城市面积每年扩大4.43平方公里,而森林每年减少2.19平方公里.
- 森林碳储量每年平均下降3171tC.
- 碳库存的波动范围从-68%到48%,受保护森林面积和组成的影响.
- 估计总碳储量损失为174,380tCO2eq,社会成本为8,893,396.6美元.
结论:
- 城市森林管理对于碳治理和气候变化减缓至关重要.
- 快速的城市扩张需要战略规划,以保护碳汇.
- 研究结果为正在经历重大城市增长及其环境后果的国家提供了洞察力.
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