开发决策树分类算法来预测COVID-19患者的死亡率
Zahra Mohammadi-Pirouz1, Karimollah Hajian-Tilaki2,3, Mahmoud Sadeghi Haddat-Zavareh4
1Student Research Center, Research Institute, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran.
International journal of emergency medicine
|September 28, 2024
概括
CHAID决策树算法有效预测了COVID-19死亡风险,在特异性和精确性方面表现优于其他模型. 影响死亡率的关键因素包括ICU入院,年龄和先前存在的疾病.
科学领域:
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 准确预测COVID-19死亡率对于医疗保健资源分配和公共政策至关重要.
- 识别关键的风险因素有助于管理流行病的影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估决策树算法 (CART,C5.0,CHAID) 在预测COVID-19死亡风险方面的性能.
- 将这些算法与逻辑回归模型进行比较.
主要方法:
- 伊朗巴博尔5080名COVID-19患者的回顾性队列研究 (2020年3月至2022年3月).
- 数据被分为80%的培训和20%的测试集,用于模型验证.
- 使用ROC曲线,灵敏度,特异性和AUC来评估性能.
主要成果:
- 在COVID-19的医院死亡率为7.7%.
- 与其他模型相比,CHAID算法显示出优越的特异性 (0.98) 和精度 (0.70).
- 影响因素包括ICU住院,输管,年龄,病,BUN,CRP,WBC,NLR,O2和和血红蛋白.
结论:
- CHAID在预测COVID-19死亡率方面的特异性,精度和准确性方面表现最好.
- 虽然CART和C5.0在灵敏度方面表现出色,但CHAID在物流回归方面略有改善.
- 该研究强调了决策树算法在COVID-19风险分层中的实用性.
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