开发和验证中国社会孤立的老年人风险预测模型
Qiugui Li1, Wenjiao Cen1, Tao Yang2
1School of Nursing, Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
BMC public health
|September 28, 2024
概括
一个新的预测模型可以识别中国面临社会孤立风险的老年人. 该工具帮助医疗保健专业人员为弱势群体提供早期查和干预策略.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 老年人面临着由于功能衰退,社交互动减少以及退休后户外活动减少而增加的社会隔离风险.
- 社会隔离给老年人带来了重大的健康挑战.
- 中国人口老龄化需要针对社会隔离进行有针对性的干预.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个预测模型来评估中国老年人的社会隔离风险.
- 确定导致这一人口群体社会孤立的关键因素.
- 为早期发现和干预社会隔离提供一个工具.
主要方法:
- 利用了2011年中国健康与退休长度研究 (CHARLS) 的数据,其中有4747名参与者.
- 用于模型开发和因素识别的雇佣最低绝对收缩和选择操作员 (LASSO) 回归和后勤回归.
- 使用70:30培训验证分割,交叉验证,校准曲线,ROC分析和决策曲线分析 (DCA) 验证了预测模型.
主要成果:
- 在这项研究中,34.8%的老年人经历过社会孤立.
- 确定的主要预测因素包括教育水平,婚姻状况,性别,体力活动,自我维持能力和孩子数量.
- 预测模型表现良好,训练组的AUC为0.739和验证组的AUC为0.708,ROC和DCA证实了出色的预测能力.
结论:
- 在中国的老年人中,已经开发了一种有效的社会隔离风险预测模型.
- 该模型显示了早期查和医疗保健专业人员及时干预的重要实用性.
- 这种工具可以帮助缓解社会隔离对中国老年人口的负面影响.
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