巴西的热舒适条件和死亡率
Weeberb J Requia1, Reizane Maria Damasceno da Silva1, Leonardo Hoinaski2
1Center for Environment and Public Health Studies, School of Public Policy and Government, Fundação Getulio Vargas, Brasilia 72125590, Brazil.
International journal of environmental research and public health
|September 28, 2024
概括
热量指数,而不仅仅是温度,预测巴西的死亡率. 呼吸和循环系统死亡的风险较高与不适指数 (DI),湿度指数 (H),热量指数 (HI) 和净有效温度 (NET) 有关.
科学领域:
- 环境健康科学 环境健康科学
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 传统的温度指标无法充分捕捉热应力.
- 热量指数整合了气象因素,以全面评估感知温度.
- 了解热舒适对健康的影响对于公共卫生政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计巴西的热舒适条件与呼吸道和循环系统疾病死亡率之间的关联.
- 评估四个不同的热指数的性能:不适指数 (DI),净有效温度 (NET),湿度指数 (H) 和热指数 (HI).
主要方法:
- 一个大数据集的分析,包括2003年至2017年的巴西2,872,084例死亡.
- 基于健康结果,暴露滞后,暴露百分位数和人口群体 (性别/年龄) 的相对风险 (RR) 变化的检查.
- 统计建模以评估DI,NET,H和HI对所有原因死亡率的影响.
主要成果:
- 在热指数和死亡率之间发现了显著的关联,根据指数,滞后和暴露水平而有所不同.
- 高暴露 (第99百分位) 显示出对所有原因死亡率的强有力的影响,延迟时间较短 (3-10天).
- 低暴露率 (第一百分位数) 也与大多数子组的全因死亡率增加有关,特别是在20的滞后.
结论:
- 热量指数比简单的温度更准确地评估与气候有关的健康风险.
- 调查结果强调了巴西需要采取公共卫生干预措施,以减轻热应激的影响.
- 政策制定应纳入这些指数,以应对气候变化对死亡率的影响.
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