全球腹疾病发病率-使用基于XGBoost和SHAP的可解释预测模型的更新:系统分析
Dan Liang1, Li Wang2, Shuang Liu1
1Department of Immunology and Microbiology, College of Life Science and Technology, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
Nutrients
|September 28, 2024
概括
全球范围内腹疾病的发病率正在上升,特别是在老年人中,尽管年龄标准化率正在下降. 改善供水和卫生设施的准入是减少未来病例的关键.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境健康 环境健康
背景情况:
- 腹疾病是一个持续的全球公共卫生挑战,不成比例地影响着幼儿和老年人.
- 了解腹发病趋势和影响因素对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析1990-2019年间腹发病率的时间趋势,并在全球,区域和国家范围内预测未来的发病率 (2020-2040年).
- 为了确定驱动腹发病率的关键因素,以告知预防和控制策略.
主要方法:
- 利用极端梯度增强 (XGBoost) 模型进行发病率预测 (2020-2040年),结合人口,气象和水/卫生指标.
- 采用夏普利添加式解释 (SHAP) 来解释模型预测并识别有影响力的变量.
- 计算估计年度百分比变化 (EAPC) 以评估年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR) 的时间趋势.
主要成果:
- 在全球范围内,腹病例和ASIR在2010-2019年期间增加. 预计到2040年,事件案件将增加,而ASIR预计将略有下降.
- 60岁以上的成年人呈现出患病率上升的趋势,而5岁以下的儿童患病率最高.
- 发病率增加的危险因素包括60岁以上的年龄,高降水量 (>3000毫米),高温 (>20°C) 和高蒸汽压力赤字 (>1500帕).
结论:
- 腹疾病仍然是一个重大问题,尽管全球ASIRs下降,但病例预计会增加.
- 虽然5岁以下的儿童受到影响最大,但60岁以上的成年人患病率上升需要集中注意.
- 改善获得安全饮用水和卫生服务的机会对于减少全球腹发病率至关重要.
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