英国疫苗诱导的麻疹免疫长期减弱:一项数学建模研究
Alexis Robert1, Anne M Suffel2, Adam J Kucharski3
1Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
The Lancet. Public health
|September 29, 2024
概括
麻疹疫苗的有效性可能会随着时间的推移而降低,导致接种疫苗的人,特别是年轻人更多的突破性感染. 这种免疫力下降导致疫情期间麻疹病例增加,即使在高度接种疫苗的人群中也是如此.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 免疫学 免疫学 免疫学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 英格兰 (2010-2019) 麻疹病例显示,接种疫苗的个体比例越来越高,尤其是年轻人.
- 这种趋势可能是由于疫苗诱导的免疫力下降或初级疫苗失败.
- 了解这些动态对于在接近消除的环境中控制麻疹至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估英国观察到的麻疹传播模式是否与疫苗诱导的免疫力下降一致.
- 量化免疫力减弱对麻疹流行病学的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个由年龄,地区和疫苗接种情况分层的分区数学模型.
- 该模型与英格兰 (2010-2019) 个体级麻疹病例数据相匹配.
- 测试了三个情景:没有衰减,根据疫苗接种以来的时间衰减,从2000年开始衰减.
主要成果:
- 纳入免疫力减弱的模型更好地复制了观察到的麻疹病例数据,特别是在15岁以上的两剂疫苗接种者中.
- 据估计,免疫力下降的速度缓慢,但足以增加麻疹负担.
- 据估计,接种疫苗的病例的后续传播占未接种疫苗的病例传播的83%.
结论:
- 英国麻疹病例动态支持疫苗诱导免疫力减弱的假设.
- 免疫力下降增加了疫情期间麻疹的负担,影响了接种疫苗和未接种疫苗的人.
- 15岁以上两次接种疫苗的人群中突破性感染变得越来越频繁.
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