根据2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据,在八个高负担国家进一步分析结核病
Hengliang Lv1,2, Longhao Wang3, Xueli Zhang4
1Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China.
Infectious diseases of poverty
|September 29, 2024
概括
结核病 (TB) 发病率在菲律宾上升,影响年轻人群,与世卫组织的目标有所不同. 结核病患者的管理策略需要加强,特别是在印度和印度尼西亚等高负担国家.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 全球健康 全球健康
背景情况:
- 八个高结核病负担的国家 (印度,印度尼西亚,中国,菲律宾,巴基斯坦,尼日利亚,孟加拉国,刚果民主共和国) 占全球结核病例的三分之二.
- 对这些国家的分析对于改善结核病控制措施至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为加强结核病控制提供数据驱动的见解.
- 分析8个高结核负担国家的结核病发病率趋势和风险因素.
主要方法:
- 利用的全球疾病负担研究2021年年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR) 数据.
- 用于时间趋势分析的就业joinpoint回归.
- 应用年龄周期队列模型和贝叶斯框架来评估结核病风险,并预测到2030年未来的ASIR.
主要成果:
- 菲律宾显示出结核病发病率显著上升的趋势 (每年3.1%,1990-2021年).
- 在印度,菲律宾,巴基斯坦和孟加拉国25岁以上的个人中观察到结核病风险增加 (RR > 1).
- 菲律宾和刚果民主共和国显示,年轻人群 (在菲律宾出生于1997年至2001年后) 的结核病风险上升.
- 菲律宾的ASIR预计到2030年将达到392.9/100,000;印度和印度尼西亚可能会错过世卫组织的目标.
结论:
- 菲律宾,印度和印度尼西亚没有达到世卫组织的结核病控制目标.
- 结核病的新兴趋势影响了菲律宾和刚果民主共和国的年轻人群.
- 迫切需要加强高负担国家的结核病患者管理策略.
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