随机杀试验缺乏关于主动杀对牛结核病的影响的证据:对Mills等发表评论. 2024年,第I部分和第II部分
P R Torgerson1, S Hartnack1, P Rasmussen1,2
1Section of Veterinary Epidemiology, University of Zürich, Switzerland.
bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology
|September 30, 2024
概括
随机杀试验 (RBCT) 的统计重新评估证实,杀不太可能控制牛的牛结核病 (bTB). 现代分析显示,杀对群体发病率没有影响.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 野生动物疾病生态学 野生动物疾病生态学
背景情况:
- 随机杀试验 (RBCT) 的目的是评估杀对牛结核病 (bTB) 的影响.
- 最近由Torgerson等人进行的重新评估. (2024) 被米尔斯等人驳斥了. (2024年),捍卫了最初的分析.
- 争议集中在统计方法上,特别是对群体发病率和诊断测试解释的计数比率的使用.
研究的目的:
- 在统计上重新评估RBCT数据.
- 解决对先前分析的批评,并提供修订后的解释.
- 评估子杀对牛bTB控制的有效性.
主要方法:
- 使用现代统计解释重新分析RBCT数据.
- 批评用于捍卫原始RBCT分析的统计方法.
- 专注于群体发病率,考虑确认和未确认的细分.
主要成果:
- 原始RBCT分析的辩护使用了生物学上不可信的方法,包括诊断的信息标准和错误的贝叶斯分析.
- 在分析中,对于小数据集来说",适合度"优于"预测能力".
- 在所有统计模型中,在使用现代解读诊断测试时,没有发现子杀对杀和邻近地区bTB总群体分解的显著影响.
结论:
- 原来的RBCT结论是,子杀不太可能控制牛结核病得到支持.
- 在捍卫RBCT时使用的统计方法有缺陷.
- 经过修订的理解,结合了现代兽医和统计洞察力,加强了子杀对牛BTB控制的无效性.
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