英国医生助理供应的预测建模:2014-2038年
Emyr Yosef Bakker1, Peter Anthony Dixon1, Tim Smith1
1School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Central Lancashire, Preston, PR1 2HE, UK.
Future healthcare journal
|September 30, 2024
概括
预计英国的医生助理 (PA) 劳动力将大幅增长,可能满足未来的需求. 然而,通过支持和职业发展来解决PA消耗,对于持续增长至关重要.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健 劳动力规划 医疗保健 劳动力规划
- 医疗专业发展医疗专业发展
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
背景情况:
- 根据NHS的长期劳动力计划,到2036年7月7日,NHS的目标是招聘1万名医生助理 (PA).
- 准确预测PA供应对于满足医疗保健需求至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用三种不同的建模方法,预测到2038年的英国医师协会 (PA) 供应.
- 评估英国PA专业的潜在增长.
主要方法:
- 用医师协会学院的人口普查数据 (2014-2021) 作为基线估计.
- 使用线性回归 (LRM),指数回归 (ERM) 和时间序列预测 (TSFM) 模型.
- 将其他医疗保健专业的消耗率纳入预测.
主要成果:
- 线性回归建模 (LRM) 预计到2038年,临床可用的PAs (cPAs) 将达到8,232个,考虑到消耗.
- 时间序列预测 (TSFM) 乐观地预测到2038年的上限为13,922个cPA.
- 在LRM和TSFM之间观察到广泛的协议,这表明了满足未来PA需求的潜力.
结论:
- 预计的PA供应表明,未来的需求可能会得到满足.
- 医生协会员 (PA) 的消耗对劳动力增长构成重大风险,必须减轻.
- 建议采取足够的资源,支持机制,职业结构发展和专业监管等策略来支持PA.
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