气候变化中的温度驱动的登革热传播:模式,趋势和未来预测
Fengliu Feng1, Yuxia Ma1, Pengpeng Qin1
1Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change College of Atmospheric Sciences Ministry of Education Lanzhou University Lanzhou China.
GeoHealth
|September 30, 2024
概括
由于气候变化,全球登革热病例正在上升,温度升高增加了传播风险. 特定的地区和年龄组面临着更高的易感性,需要紧急的公共卫生干预.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 登革热是一种严重的全球健康威胁,由气候敏感性和全球日益增长的发病率加剧.
- 了解气候因素与登革热传播之间的联系对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析1990-2019年全球登革热发病率趋势和温度相关性.
- 在各种气候变化情景下预测未来的登革热发病率.
- 确定最容易受到登革热扩散的地区和人口.
主要方法:
- 利用全球疾病负担和TerraClimate数据集进行历史分析 (1990-2019).
- 对于未来的气候预测,就业合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 的数据.
- 与登革热发病率相关的年平均最低温度 (AMMTs).
主要成果:
- 从1990年到2019年,全球登革热病例显著增加.
- 证实了温度和登革热发病率之间的正相关性,特别是在21°C以上.
- 确定中部/东部撒哈拉以南非洲和大洋洲是高度敏感的地区;男性和年龄在15-19/70-84最容易受到影响.
结论:
- 预计到2050年和2100年,全球登革热发病率将大幅增加.
- 在高排放场景下,警告到2100年在几个地区全年登革热流行.
- 强调需要对气候变化减缓和针对高风险地区和人口的有针对性的干预措施.
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