总生育率的贝叶斯预测取决于联合国可持续发展目标
Daphne H Liu1, Adrian E Raftery2
1Department of Statistics, University of Washington.
The annals of applied statistics
|September 30, 2024
概括
妇女政策的变化
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 政策分析 政策分析
背景情况:
- 生育率下降受到女性教育和避孕药使用的影响.
- 政策干预可以加速生育率下降.
- 政策制定者需要对这些影响进行概率定量,特别是在高生育率的国家.
研究的目的:
- 基于教育和计划生育政策,开发一个概率模型来预测生育率.
- 量化政策干预对生育率下降的影响.
主要方法:
- 一个有条件的贝叶斯层次模型被开发出来.
- 创建了概率性的生育率预测.
- 场景包括实现教育和计划生育的可持续发展目标 (SDGs).
主要成果:
- 该模型在不同的政策情景下提供了概率性生育率预测.
- 这说明了政策对生育率下降的潜在加速效应.
结论:
- 拟议的模型可以为决策者提供教育和计划生育政策对生育的影响的信息.
- 支持基于证据的生育管理政策决策.
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