中国的短期电力负载预测:基于VDD-SE的Bi-SATCN神经网络模型
Yuan Huang1, Qimeng Feng1, Feilong Han1
1School of Information and Electrical Engineering, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, Hebei, China.
PloS one
|September 30, 2024
概括
本研究引入了一种新的VMD-SE-BiSATCN模型,用于准确的短期电力负载预测,这对于中国双碳政策下的可再生能源整合至关重要. 该模型提高了预测准确性和效率,解决了系统的复杂性.
科学领域:
- 电气工程 电气工程
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 计算智能是一种计算智能.
背景情况:
- 准确的短期电力负载预测对于电力系统的稳定性和规划至关重要.
- 中国的"双碳"政策需要整合可再生能源,在电网中引入非线性和不稳定性.
- 现有的预测方法难以应对可再生能源带来的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个先进的预测模型VMD-SE-BiSATCN,以提高短期功率负载预测的准确性.
- 解决因可再生能源整合而导致的电力系统非线性和不稳定的挑战.
- 提高时间序列预测中捕捉长期依赖性的能力.
主要方法:
- 变量模式分解 (VMD) 用于序列组件分析.
- 使用样本 (SE) 来分析和重建序列组件的复杂性.
- 一个自我注意力机制被整合到一个时间卷积网络 (TCN) 中,以改善长期依赖性捕获.
- 拟议的VMD-SE-BiSATCN模型使用竞争数据和现实世界功率负载数据进行了评估.
主要成果:
- 与其他基准模型相比,VDD-SE-BiSATCN模型表现出优异的性能.
- 实现了 92.87.7 的平均绝对误差 (MAE).
- 实现了根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 的 126.906.6.
- 实现了0.81%的平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE).
结论:
- VMD-SE-BiSATCN模型显著提高了短期功率负载预测的准确性和效率.
- 该模型有效地处理与可再生能源整合相关的复杂性.
- 这种方法在不断变化的能源政策下为电力系统规划和运营提供了强大的解决方案.
相关概念视频
01:25Multimachine Stability
143
Multimachine stability analysis is crucial for understanding the dynamics and stability of power systems with multiple synchronous machines. The objective is to solve the swing equations for a network of M machines connected to an N-bus power system.
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
In analyzing the system, the nodal equations represent the relationship between bus voltages, machine voltages, and machine currents. The nodal equation is given by:
143
01:30Simplified Synchronous Machine Model
187
The Synchronous Machine Model is a fundamental tool in analyzing and ensuring the transient stability of power systems. This model simplifies the representation of a synchronous machine under balanced three-phase positive-sequence conditions, assuming constant excitation and ignoring losses and saturation. The model is pivotal for understanding the behavior of synchronous generators connected to a power grid, particularly during transient events.
In this model, each generator is connected to a...
In this model, each generator is connected to a...
187
01:15Power in a Three-Phase Circuit
294
Three-phase systems have two configurations: the wye and delta. A star configuration can be three or four wires; in a delta configuration, the components are connected in a closed loop. Instantaneous power refers to the power value at a precise moment, and in a balanced three-phase system, it is constant. This is because the sum of the instantaneous powers in the three phases remains steady over time, despite individual fluctuations, due to the symmetry and phase relationship. The total...
294
01:21Power System Three-Phase Short Circuits
78
Determining the subtransient fault current in a power system involves representing transformers by their leakage reactances, transmission lines by their equivalent series reactances, and synchronous machines as constant voltage sources behind their subtransient reactances. In this analysis, certain elements are excluded, such as winding resistances, series resistances, shunt admittances, delta-Y phase shifts, armature resistance, saturation, saliency, non-rotating impedance loads, and small...
78
01:21Three-Phase Short Circuit—Unloaded Synchronous Machine
126
Conducting a three-phase short circuit test on an unloaded synchronous machine helps understand its impact on the system. The AC fault current's oscillogram, with the DC offset removed, reveals that the waveform amplitude decreases from an initially high value to a steady-state level for one phase of the machine.
This behavior occurs due to the magnetic flux produced by the short-circuit armature currents. Initially, these currents follow high-reluctance paths but eventually shift to...
This behavior occurs due to the magnetic flux produced by the short-circuit armature currents. Initially, these currents follow high-reluctance paths but eventually shift to...
126