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气候变暖引起的土壤湿度压力威胁到印度的粮食安全

Rahul Kashyap¹, Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath²

¹CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, 721302, India.

Environmental science and pollution research international

|September 30, 2024

概括

由于气温上升,印度的土壤水分干燥,威胁到作物产量和粮食安全. 这种由气候变暖引起的水分压力特别影响主要的农业季节和地区,需要适应气候变化的农业实践.

科学领域:

地球系统科学地球系统科学
农业科学农业科学
气候科学气候科学
遥感遥感遥感遥感

背景情况:

土壤湿度 (SM) 对地球系统过程,陆地-大气反和粮食生产至关重要.
全球约40%的植被土地正在经历土壤水分的干燥.
印度是一个主要的农业经济体,面临着未经探索的土壤水分动态及其对粮食安全的影响.

研究的目的:

调查印度土壤水分干燥的机制.
分析土壤水分干燥对耕地生产力的影响.
预测土壤湿度动态对印度粮食安全的未来影响.

主要方法:

利用遥感测量和2000-2019年陆地表面模型模拟以及未来预测.
采用基于机器学习 (ML) 的随机森林 (RF) 来识别土壤湿度变化的驱动因素.
进行了部分相关性分析和格兰杰因果关系测试,以了解变量之间的关系.

主要成果:

在季风和冬季农业季节 (Kharif和Rabi) 观察到的土壤水分显著减少.
温度被确定为土壤湿度变化的主要驱动因素 (30.76%),其次是降水和蒸发.
气候变暖引起的潮湿压力对关键农业地区的作物生产率 (总初级生产率和产量) 有负面影响.

结论:

气候变暖引起的土壤湿度压力对印度的粮食安全构成重大威胁.
鉴定的驱动因素和影响突显了主要粮食作物的脆弱性.
迫切需要适应气候变化的农业,改善水资源管理和节水的作物.

关键词:

农业干旱农业干旱因果关系是因果关系.农田的生产率农田的生产率全球变暖全球变暖.机器学习是机器学习.

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