分析英国结核病例报告的季节性,2000-2018年
Lisa Glaser1, Ross Harris2, Tehreem Mohiyuddin1
1Travel Health, Zoonosis, Emerging Infections of Pandemic Potential and Respiratory & Tuberculosis Division, UK Health Security Agency, London, UK and.
Epidemiology and infection
|October 1, 2024
概括
在英国,结核病 (TB) 发病率呈季节性变化,在5月达到顶峰. 年龄,种族和最近抵达英国等因素影响结核病的季节性,可能与维生素D水平有关.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
背景情况:
- 全球结核病 (TB) 发病率表现出季节性模式,但潜在的驱动因素因国家而异.
- 了解英国特有的结核病季节性风险因素对于完善控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析英国结核病报告的季节性趋势.
- 确定与英国结核病季节性相关的社会人口因素.
主要方法:
- 从2000年至2018年期间,对152,424起英国结核病通知进行时间序列分析.
- 使用负二项式回归模型来评估季节性和共同变量效应.
- 季节性影响用发病风险比率 (IRR) 来量化,将高峰和低谷月份进行比较.
主要成果:
- 强有力的证据表明,英国结核病报告具有季节性 (IRR=1.27,p < 0.0001),其发病率在5月初达到峰值.
- 在各个年龄组,种族,疾病部位,度和移民以来的时间中观察到季节幅度的显著变化.
- 老年人的季节性减少和南亚人和近期移民的季节性增加表明潜藏性结核病重新激活和维生素D缺乏的作用.
结论:
- 英国结核病发病率表现出明显的季节性模式,在春末达到顶峰.
- 社会人口因素显著调节结核病的季节性,突出显示潜在的潜感染再激活和维生素D缺乏的潜在作用.
- 调查结果可以为英国的结核病控制提供有针对性的公共卫生干预措施.
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