撒哈拉以南非洲的生育转型:结构变化的作用
Nicolas Büttner1, Michael Grimm2, Isabel Günther1
1Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences, NADEL-Global Cooperation and Sustainable Development, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Demography
|October 1, 2024
概括
结构性经济变化是理解非洲缓慢的生育过渡的关键. 工业化和教育推动生育率下降,可能使撒哈拉以南非洲的出生率降低1-1.6个孩子.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 发展经济学 发展经济学
- 非洲研究是非洲研究.
背景情况:
- 撒哈拉以南非洲地区的生育率过渡缓慢,尽管经济增长和儿童死亡率下降.
- 结构性经济变化在这种人口现象中的作用需要进一步研究.
研究的目的:
- 分析低收入和中等收入国家生育转型的驱动因素.
- 探索结构性经济变化对非洲生育率的影响.
主要方法:
- 从人口和健康调查和夜间光强度数据构建一个独特的面板数据集.
- 分析了来自57个国家的数据,在30多年的次国家级区域层面.
- 包括工业化,劳动力组成,教育和经济正式化指标.
主要成果:
- 证实了家庭财富,降低儿童死亡率和女性小学教育对生育率下降的重要性.
- 强调结构性经济变化指标 (非农业就业,工业化,女性高等教育,经济正式化) 作为关键驱动因素.
- 模拟表明,在具有相似经济转型的高生育率非洲国家,生育率可能减少1-1.6个孩子.
结论:
- 结构性经济转型是影响低收入和中等收入国家生育率转型的重要因素.
- 针对促进工业化和女性教育的经济发展战略,可以加速撒哈拉以南非洲的生育率下降.
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