早期SARS-CoV-2循环的血清学证据在秘鲁利马,2020年
Andres Moreira-Soto1,2, Maria Paquita García3, Gloria Arotinco-Garayar3
1Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Institute of Virology, Berlin, Germany.
The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene
|October 1, 2024
概括
早期未检测到的严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 在秘鲁的循环导致了高的COVID-19死亡率. 准确的诊断确认对于了解流行病传播和改善疫情管理至关重要.
科学领域:
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 秘鲁在2021年初经历了最高的COVID-19人均死亡率.
- 导致高死亡率的因素包括社会经济不平等,医疗保健系统的不准备以及监测局限性.
- 早期,未被发现的SARS-CoV-2循环可能会显著加剧死亡率.
研究的目的:
- 调查SARS-CoV-2在秘鲁引入和传播的时间.
- 评估早期,未被发现的病毒传播在秘鲁高COVID-19死亡率中的作用.
- 强调诊断确认在跟踪流行病轨迹中的重要性.
主要方法:
- 在1441名发烧患者 (2019年8月至2021年5月) 中对SARS-CoV-2抗体进行血清检测.
- 使用化学发光免疫测试,替代病毒中和测试,斑块减少中和测试 (PRNT) 和贪测试.
- 使用易受,暴露,感染和恢复 (SEIR) 数学模型来估计有效的繁殖数量.
主要成果:
- 没有早期样本 (2020年1月至3月) 被PRNT证实,与2020年4月以后的样本不同 (P <0.0001).
- 2020年4月中旬,SARS-CoV-2抗体检测率为0.9%,这表明流通开始于2020年3月初至中旬.
- 增加的抗体狂热度和SEIR模型结果表明,SARS-CoV-2在2020年2月底/3月底开始循环.
结论:
- 在秘鲁,SARS-CoV-2的早期引入和传播早于官方检测,导致死亡率高.
- 准确的诊断确认对于了解疾病传播和流行病动态至关重要.
- 这项研究强调了早期检测和精确测试对于有效的传染病爆发管理的必要性.
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