连接跨大陆的生物地理事件来解读欧洲葡萄园如何逃脱皮尔斯病的原因
Eduardo Moralejo1, Àlex Giménez-Romero2, Manuel A Matías2
1Tragsa, Passatge Cala Figuera, no. 6, Mallorca, Balearic Islands, Palma de Mallorca 07009, Spain.
Proceedings. Biological sciences
|October 1, 2024
概括
由于气候不利,欧洲葡萄园避免了皮尔斯病 (PD),这是由Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) 引起的. 全球变暖现在增加了欧洲南部的PD风险,威胁着葡萄园.
科学领域:
- 植物病理学 植物病理学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 人类遗传学 是一个学科.
背景情况:
- 全球变化影响了侵入性病原体的出现.
- 了解阻碍或触发病原体传播的因素至关重要.
- 细菌Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) 在葡萄树中引起皮尔斯病 (PD).
研究的目的:
- 解释欧洲葡萄园是如何逃脱Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) 的.
- 研究历史事件和气候在疾病传播中的作用.
- 在全球变暖情景下预测未来的PD风险.
主要方法:
- 人类遗传学分析
- 流行病学数据 流行病学数据
- 历史记录是历史记录.
- 贝叶斯时间重建 贝叶斯时间重建
- 气候建模 气候建模
主要成果:
- 美国葡萄树出口到法国 (~1872-1895) 之前Xf在美国传播.
- 在加利福尼亚州,Xf的共同祖先可以追溯到1875年,与PD的出现相吻合.
- 欧洲的气候 (1870年至1990年) 对PD流行病不利.
- 自20世纪90年代以来,在南欧观察到与变暖相关的PD风险增加.
结论:
- 生物地理条件在历史上保护了南欧的葡萄园免受PD的侵害.
- 气候变化正在增加欧洲的PD风险.
- 气温上升将大大提高欧洲葡萄种植的未来疾病风险.
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