一种基于回归的方法来计算空气中的CO2分数
Mikkel Bennedsen1,2, Eric Hillebrand3,4, Siem Jan Koopman5,6
1Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, Aarhus V, Denmark. mbennedsen@econ.au.dk.
Nature communications
|October 1, 2024
概括
空气中二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放的空气分量已通过一种新的统计方法重新评估. 这项研究估计空气中的二氧化碳分量为47.0%,为大气碳吸收提供了更精确的了解.
科学领域:
- 地球和环境科学 地球和环境科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 空气中的分数 (AF) 量化了人为二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放在大气中的比例.
- 之前的估计,全球空气中的二氧化碳分量约为44%.
- 估计AF的传统方法具有已知的统计局限性.
研究的目的:
- 为了解决传统的空气分数估计器中的统计缺陷.
- 开发和应用一种更强大的,基于回归的方法来估计空气中的二氧化碳分数.
- 提供全球CO2空气分量的更新和更好的约束估计.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种基于回归的新型估计器来计算空气中的分数.
- 经验分析使用了1959年至2022年的数据进行.
- 气候模型的输出被用来验证以回归为基础的方法在未来的排放场景.
主要成果:
- 该研究估计,从1959年到2022年,全球空气中的二氧化碳分量为47.0% (±1.1%).
- 这一估计比目前的共识值更高,并且受到更精确的约束.
- 基于回归的方法证明了可靠的AF估计,即使对于接近零排放的未来场景.
结论:
- 传统的空气分数估计器具有显著的统计缺点.
- 基于回归的方法提供了一个更准确,更可靠的方法来估计空气中的二氧化碳分数.
- 更新的空气分数估计对气候建模和碳预算评估有影响.
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