视觉MODFLOW,溶解物运输建模和遥感技术,用于适应水表潜力在恢复和气候变化影响下沿海水表的影响
Moaz M Abd El Ghany1, Shaimaa M El-Hadidy2, Sameh A Sakr3
1Geology Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo, 11566, Egypt.
Scientific reports
|October 1, 2024
概括
本研究评估了埃及地下水的可持续性.
科学领域:
- 水文学和水文地质学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 全球环境变化和回收项目正在改变水文过程,导致水资源的不稳定性.
- 埃及国家土地回收计划涉及大量的地下水开采,特别是在摩格拉地区,需要进行可持续性评估.
- 了解在气候变化下地下水开发的长期影响对于水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据气候变化情景,调查从抽水井对莫格拉含水层的地下水开采的长期影响.
- 为摩格拉含水层制定可持续的地下水资源管理策略.
- 提出拟议的发展方案,考虑到气候变化和地下水的退出.
主要方法:
- 利用卫星数据,时间序列地理分析和统计建模来估计30年的气候变化影响.
- 开发了一个使用MODFLOW和MT3DMS的3D有限差异模型来模拟地下水流量和盐度分布.
- 将2020-2050年期间的降级气候参数 (降水,蒸发,气温) 纳入模型.
主要成果:
- 确定了一个最佳的适应场景,包括1500个井,500米的间隔,以及1200 m3/day的抽水率,并坚持每年最大抽水量为1.0 m.
- 这种情景预计30年后地下水的吸收量为42m,地下水的盐度为16000 mg/l.
- 气候变化对地下水的数量和质量产生重大影响,增加了对沿海水层盐水入侵的脆弱性.
结论:
- 莫格拉含水层的地下水资源容易受到过度开发和气候变化的影响,影响水的可用性和质量.
- 可持续的地下水管理需要综合战略,考虑气候变化预测和运营约束.
- 该研究强调了气候变化和水文循环之间的关键关系,用于预测未来的水资源供应和解决水安全问题.
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