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模型和观测一致认为,即使在近几十年的快速北极变暖中,中度寒冷极端的数量越来越少,越来越温和
Russell Blackport1, Michael Sigmond1, James A Screen2
1Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada.
Science advances
|October 2, 2024
概括
自1990年以来,北方中度地区观察到的极端寒冷实际上已经减少,这与之前的报道相反. 这一发现与气候模型预测一致,解决了天气模式模拟中的差异.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 近几十年来,北方中度地区观察到的极端寒冷情况有所增加.
- 这与气候模型预测降低极端寒冷的情况形成鲜明对比.
- 差异表明模拟北极变暖对天气模式的影响可能存在模型不准确性.
研究的目的:
- 重新评估中度寒冷极端的趋势.
- 为了使观察到的趋势与气候模型预测相协调.
- 为了调查观察到和建模的寒冷极端变化之间的差异的原因.
主要方法:
- 对极端寒冷的观测数据的分析.
- 将观察到的趋势与气候模型模拟进行比较.
- 识别和纠正影响先前分析的数据缺陷.
主要成果:
- 自1990年以来,观察到的中度极寒的频率和强度显著下降.
- 之前报道的极端寒冷的增加是数据覆盖面变化的产物.
- 观察到的趋势现在与气候模型预测一致.
- 观察到的寒冷极端的增加处于模型内部可变性叠加于强制减少的范围之内.
结论:
- 近几十年来,中度地区的极端寒冷已经明显减少.
- 冰冷极端的观测和建模趋势是一致的.
- 气候模型准确地模拟了中度寒冷极端的减少.
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