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头盔使用对摩托车驾驶员在摩托车车祸中的伤害严重性的影响:来自部分时间受约束的随机参数的洞察双变的探针模型

Chenzhu Wang¹, Mohamed Abdel-Aty¹, Pengfei Cui²

¹Department of Civil, Environmental & Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, United States.

Accident; analysis and prevention

|October 2, 2024

概括

摩托车骑手在没有头盔的情况下面临更高的风险,特别是在角度撞击中. 男性骑手和双车道道路上的骑手不太可能戴头盔,但矛盾的是,伤害率较低. 日光条件减少了摩托车碰撞的风险.

科学领域:

交通安全研究交通安全研究
伤害预防预防伤害
流行病学流行病学

背景情况:

摩托车的小尺寸和不可预测的运动减少了其他司机的可见性.
摩托车提供的保护有限,尤其是没有头盔的摩托车,增加了碰撞的严重性.
了解头盔的使用和受伤严重程度对于摩托车骑手的安全至关重要.

研究的目的:

为了调查头盔使用与摩托车与车辆碰撞中的受伤严重程度之间的关联.
分析摩托车骑手安全的时间变化,考虑到COVID-19大流行.
确定影响摩托车骑手受伤结果和头盔采用的关键因素.

主要方法:

利用关节双变探头模型,同时分析受伤严重程度和头盔使用情况.
在佛罗里达州 (2019-2021) 收集和分析了两辆摩托车撞车事故的数据.
采用相关联的联合随机参数双变探头模型来捕捉未观察到的异质性和时间不稳定性.

主要成果:

男性摩托车骑手和双车道道路上的摩托车骑手使用头盔较少,但受伤/死亡率也较低.
日光条件与摩托车骑手受伤或死亡的风险降低有关.
在所有时期,角度撞击始终导致严重伤害和死亡的风险更高.

结论:

头盔的使用和受伤严重程度受到骑手人口统计学,道路状况和撞车类型的影响.
随着COVID-19大流行,摩托车驾驶者的安全动态出现了暂时的不稳定.
调查结果为有针对性的干预提供了信息,以加强摩托车骑手的保护,并减少与碰撞有关的伤害.

关键词:

撞车事故参与率的比率.头盔的使用方式伤害严重程度的结果.联合双变型探头模型摩托车车祸发生事故部分时间受约束模型.

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