考虑到时空相关性,对于干散货港口集群的每小时PM2.5度预测:一种新的深度学习混合组合模型
Jinxing Shen1, Qinxin Liu1, Xuejun Feng2
1College of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Hohai University, No.1, Xikang Road, Nanjing, 210098, China.
Journal of environmental management
|October 2, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的深度学习模型,用于准确预测港口集群中的颗粒物 (PM2.5) 度. 这种先进的模型显著提高了预测准确性,为空气质量管理策略提供了至关重要的支持.
科学领域:
- 环境科学与工程环境科学与工程
- 环境监测中的人工智能
- 空气质量预测建模模型
背景情况:
- 准确预测港口环境中的PM2.5度对于公共卫生和有效控制空气污染至关重要.
- 由于复杂的气象条件,港口间PM2.5相关性以及城市背景污染物影响,港口集群存在独特的挑战.
- 现有的模型往往难以捕捉港口集群空气质量固有的时空动态.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的混合集团深度学习模型,用于准确地预测港口集群中的PM2.5度.
- 解决港口环境中时空相关性和外部污染物影响所带来的挑战.
- 为干燥散货港口集群提供可靠的空气质量管理决策支持.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个混合集团深度学习模型,集成图形卷积网络 (GCN),长短期记忆 (LSTM) 网络和剩余神经网络 (ResNet).
- 利用GCN进行空间相关性,LSTM用于时间依赖性,ResNet用于城市污染物影响,并使用CNN元模型进行最终预测.
- 使用南京的18个港口验证了该模型,并将其性能与六个最先进的模型进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 拟议的GCN-LSTM-ResNet模型显示出卓越的预测准确性,显著超过现有方法.
- 实现了平均绝对误差 (MAE) 的减少10.59%-20.00%和根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 的减少13.22%-17.11%.
- 显示了10%-35.38%的确定系数 (R2) 和3.48%-7.08%的精度 (ACC) 的改进,在预测高度事件方面表现出色.
结论:
- 新的混合集团深度学习模型为复杂的端口集群环境中的PM2.5预测提供了强大的解决方案.
- 确定GCN和LSTM组件对预测性能影响最大,突出了空间和时间因素的重要性.
- 该模型提供可靠的预测和有价值的见解,用于开发港口地区有效的空气质量管理策略.
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