评估春指标与全球作物产量损失之间的关系
Wei Guo1, Hangyu Dai1, Junhao Qian1
1Key Laboratory of Advanced Process Control for Light Industry, Ministry of Education, Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China; School of IoT (Internet of Things), Jiangnan University, Wuxi 214122, China.
The Science of the total environment
|October 2, 2024
概括
春季会对作物产量产生不同的影响. 温度波动 (Tv) 越来越多地影响玉米和小麦,而温度差异 (Td) 对大米至关重要,尽管其趋势解释了最近大米损失的减少.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 农业学是一种农业学.
背景情况:
- 关于春季对作物损失的影响的不一致报告可能源于有限的分析指标.
- 全球变暖对气候模式的复杂影响需要对的影响有细微的了解.
研究的目的:
- 调查多个春季指标与主要作物 (玉米,冬季小麦,大米) 的产量损失之间的关系.
- 为了确定影响全球作物产量变化的最有影响力的春季冰指标.
主要方法:
- 全球温度和作物生产数据 (1981-2016) 的分析.
- 评估五个春季的指标:温度波动 (Tv),温度差 (Td),持续时间 (Thour),发生日期 (Tdate) 和频率 (Tnum).
- 线性回归用于趋势分析和随机森林用于产量损失预测的应用.
主要成果:
- 尽管总体变暖,但并非所有度指标都显示下降趋势.
- 温度波动 (Tv) 是增加玉米和冬季小麦产量损失的主要驱动因素.
- 温度差 (Td) 对大米产量损失至关重要,但其下降趋势解释了最近的稳定性.
结论:
- 春季对作物产量的影响是指标特定的,并且根据作物而异.
- 温度波动 (Tv) 的增加对玉米和小麦生产构成越来越大的威胁.
- 降低温度差 (Td) 减轻了春季造成的产损失.
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