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贝叶斯空间时间分析和坦桑尼亚大陆心血管疾病的决定因素
Bernada E Sianga1, Maurice C Mbago2, Amina S Msengwa2
1Department of Official Statistics, Eastern Africa Statistical Training Centre, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. betsianga@gmail.com.
BMC medical research methodology
|October 2, 2024
概括
坦桑尼亚心血管疾病 (CVD) 发病率在2015-2019年期间下降,沿海和湖泊地区的发病率更高. 关键的危险因素包括年龄,女性性别,吸烟,饮酒和超重.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境健康 环境健康
背景情况:
- 心血管疾病 (CVD) 构成了全球重大健康威胁,预计到2030年将导致2360万死亡.
- 像坦桑尼亚这样的发展中国家承受着不成比例地高的心血管疾病负担.
研究的目的:
- 分析坦桑尼亚2010年至2019年心血管疾病的时空趋势.
- 确定与该地区心血管疾病发病率相关的关键决定因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了坦桑尼亚主要医院 (JKCI,MZRH,KCMC,Bugando) 的个人患者数据和TMA.的地理数据.
- 采用贝叶斯层次模型与空间和时间组件,通过集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似 (INLA) 分析.
主要成果:
- 从2010年至2014年,心血管疾病发病率上升,从2015年至2019年,发病率下降.
- 在南部高地,湖泊,中部和沿海地区观察到更高的CVD流行率.
- 风险因素包括年龄 (60-64岁),女性性别,吸烟,饮酒以及超重. 最大温度上升1°C与心血管疾病风险上升14%相关.
结论:
- 坦桑尼亚的心血管疾病发病率从2015年到2019年呈现下降趋势.
- 沿海和湖泊地区在2010年至2019年期间经历了较高的心血管疾病发生率.
- 人口,生活方式和地理因素与心血管疾病风险有显著联系.
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