老年人残疾风险预测模型:系统审查和批判性评估
Jinyan Zhou1, Yihong Xu1, Dan Yang1
1Nursing Department, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 3 Qingchun East Road, Hangzhou, 310016, China.
BMC geriatrics
|October 2, 2024
概括
大多数老年人的残疾预测模型显示可接受的歧视,但其质量差,临床价值有限. 未来的研究必须使用更大的样本和强大的方法来改进模型开发,以获得更好的预测性能.
科学领域:
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 越来越多的老年人的残疾预测模型.
- 预测性能的变化和现有模型不清楚的质量.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查和批判性地评估对老年人残疾风险预测模型的研究.
主要方法:
- 在多个数据库中进行全面的文献搜索,截至2023年6月30日.
- 使用检查列表进行批判性评估的数据提取和用于系统性评估预测建模研究 (CHARMS) 的数据提取.
- 偏差风险和适用性评估使用预测模型偏差风险评估工具 (PROBAST).
主要成果:
- 包括16项研究和17个模型;样本大小从420到90,889.
- 模型歧视 (C统计/AUC) 范围从0.650到0.853;九个模型超过了0.75.
- 所有研究都有高偏差风险,10项研究对适用性存在严重担忧;只有两种模型符合临床价值标准.
结论:
- 大多数模型具有可接受的歧视,但整体研究质量和临床价值都很差.
- 需要根据TRIPOD语句和PROBAST检查清单进行改进的模型开发.
- 未来的研究应该专注于更大的样本大小,更好的研究设计和科学分析,以提高预测性能和应用价值.
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