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相关概念视频

Steps in Outbreak Investigation01:18

Steps in Outbreak Investigation

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In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
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Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error00:59

Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error

655
An experiment often consists of more than a single step. In this case, measurements at each step give rise to uncertainty. Because the measurements occur in successive steps, the uncertainty in one step necessarily contributes to that in the subsequent step. As we perform statistical analysis on these types of experiments, we must learn to account for the propagation of uncertainty from one step to the next. The propagation of uncertainty depends on the type of arithmetic operation performed on...
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Social Traps01:41

Social Traps

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Social traps are negative situations where people get caught in a direction or relationship that later proves to be unpleasant, with no easy way to back out of or avoid. The concept was orignally introduced by John Platt who applied psychology to Garrett Hardin's "Tragedy of the Commons", where in New England herd owners could let their cattle graze in the common ground. This situation seems like a good idea, but an individual could have an advantage. If they owned...
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Fundamental Attribution Error01:14

Fundamental Attribution Error

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According to some social psychologists, people tend to overemphasize internal factors as explanations—or attributions—for the behavior of other people. They tend to assume that the behavior of another person is a trait of that person, and to underestimate the power of the situation on the behavior of others. They tend to fail to recognize when the behavior of another is due to situational variables, and thus to the person’s state. This erroneous assumption is...
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Regression Toward the Mean01:52

Regression Toward the Mean

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Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when...
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Probability Distributions01:32

Probability Distributions

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 The probability of a random variable x  is the likelihood of its occurrence. A probability distribution represents the probabilities of a random variable using a formula, graph, or table. There are two types of probability distribution– discrete probability distribution and continuous probability distribution.
A discrete probability distribution is a probability distribution of discrete random variables. It can be categorized into binomial probability distribution and Poisson...
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相关实验视频

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Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
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有限风险倾向解释了空间传染期间的图灵格局和临界点.

C M Jamerlan1, M Prokopenko1,2

  • 1Centre for Complex Systems, Faculty of Engineering, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.

Royal Society open science
|October 3, 2024
PubMed
概括

这项研究引入了一个新的框架来模拟诸如流行病和民间骚乱之类的空间传染. 它揭示了这些传染形成复杂的图灵模式,对人类行为和脆弱性敏感.

科学领域:

  • 复杂系统科学 复杂系统科学
  • 数学生物学 数学生物学
  • 社会空间动态 社会空间动态

背景情况:

  • 空间传染 (流行病,意见两极分化,信息流行病,民间骚乱) 显示出复杂的时空动态.
  • 这些动态是由复杂的人类行为和人口流动模式驱动的.

研究的目的:

  • 提出一种通用框架,用于模拟各种空间传染.
  • 定义一个包含风险处置和易感性的传染脆弱性空间.
  • 分析新出现的时空模式及其对脆弱性参数的敏感性.

主要方法:

  • 开发一个对空间传播的通用建模框架.
  • 传染脆弱性空间的定义,包括有界的风险厌恶,适应性响应和普遍的易感性获取.
  • 分析新兴的地理空间传染配置作为图灵模式.

主要成果:

  • 空间传染产生复杂的图灵模式,类似于反应扩散系统中的图灵模式.
  • 模式形成对脆弱性参数的变化非常敏感.
  • 确定的关键制度 (临界点) 证明了易感性或感知风险的轻微变化如何显著改变人口流动和传染模式.

结论:

关键词:
流行病 流行病 流行病意见的两极化 意见的两极化模式形成 模式形成 模式形成社会的神话社会神话.社会经济动荡的社会经济动荡.获得易感度 获得易感度

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  • 拟议的框架有效地模拟了各种空间传染,揭示了新出现的图灵模式.
  • 了解脆弱性参数对于预测和管理空间传染动态至关重要.
  • 该模型的灵敏度分析突出了传染病传播和影响的潜在临界点.