低收入和中等收入国家痴呆风险预测建模:现有证据现状
Maha Alshahrani1,2,3, Serena Sabatini4, Devi Mohan5
1Dementia Centre of Excellence, Curtin EnAble Institute, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia.
Frontiers in epidemiology
|October 3, 2024
概括
为低收入和中等收入国家 (LMICs) 开发痴呆风险预测模型至关重要. 由于这些地区现有的痴呆症预测工具的局限性,需要特定的环境模型.
科学领域:
- 神经学 神经学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 痴呆症是一个重大的全球健康挑战,不成比例地影响低收入和中等收入国家 (LMICs).
- 现有的痴呆风险预测模型,通常是在高收入国家开发的,对LMIC环境的概括性不佳.
- 在LMICs中,对痴呆症风险概况和预测建模的研究有限,这阻碍了有针对性的干预.
研究的目的:
- 强调迫切需要为LMICs开发特定背景的痴呆风险预测模型.
- 在LMIC环境中确定与痴呆风险预测相关的关键社会经济和环境因素.
- 强调对任何新开发的痴呆症预测模型进行外部验证的必要性.
主要方法:
- 关于痴呆风险预测模型的现有文献的审查.
- 确定LMIC特定模型的关键变量,包括社会经济地位,识字,获得医疗保健,营养,压力,污染物和职业危险.
- 对LMIC中痴呆症预测研究当前差距的分析.
主要成果:
- 痴呆症是导致死亡和残疾的主要原因,在LMICs中超过60%的病例.
- 目前的痴呆症预测模型缺乏验证,并且未能纳入关键的LMIC特定风险因素.
- 对于中国和墨西哥而言,只有少数特定的背景模型存在,其预测准确性各不相同.
结论:
- 迫切需要为LMICs开发和验证特定背景的痴呆症预测模型.
- 纳入社会经济,环境和健康获取变量对于准确预测LMIC中痴呆风险至关重要.
- 这种模型对于规划早期干预和在LMIC环境中为弱势群体分配资源至关重要.
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