全球气候变化低于2°C,避免了本世纪末加拿大燃烧面积大幅增加
Salvatore R Curasi1,2,3, Joe R Melton2, Vivek K Arora1
1Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC Canada.
概括
加拿大加拿大加拿大加拿大加拿大加拿大
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 环境科学环境科学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 野火严重影响全球碳循环,财产,木材资源和公共卫生.
- 加拿大在2023年经历了创纪录的野火季节,燃烧了1490万公,远远超过了1986年至2022年的平均水平.
- 预测未来的野火趋势对于了解和减轻气候变化影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用一种新的基于过程的野火模块来预测加拿大野火的未来.
- 评估不同气候变化情景对未来燃烧地区的影响.
- 确定野火活动的关键驱动因素和相关的不确定性.
主要方法:
- 利用一种新的基于过程的野火模块,结合了火灾天气,燃料动态,点火源,抑制力度和植被反应.
- 在各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下模拟未来野火场景,包括快速气候变化 (SSP370和SSP585) 和低于2°C的目标 (SSP126).
- 分析了燃烧面积和碳排放对气候驱动因素和闪电活动的敏感性.
主要成果:
- 在快速气候变化场景 (SSP370和SSP585) 下,2090年代模拟的年度燃烧面积达到1020万1170万公,接近2023年的记录.
- 在将全球变暖限制在2°C以下的情景下 (SSP126),未来的燃烧面积仍然接近现代 (2004-2014) 的水平.
- 模拟燃烧面积和碳排放对气候驱动因素和闪电最敏感,未来的闪电活动代表了一个关键的不确定性.
结论:
- 加拿大的未来野火范围对全球气候变化的轨迹高度敏感.
- 将全球变暖限制在2°C以下对于减轻加拿大的极端野火事件至关重要.
- 对未来闪电活动的进一步研究对于完善野火预测至关重要.
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