一年后 ENSO 影响北大西洋振荡
Adam A Scaife1,2, Nick Dunstone1, Steven Hardiman1
1Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
概括
厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 在热带地区引发了显著的1年滞后的气候反应,影响了北大西洋振荡 (NAO). 这种由大气动量驱动的延迟效应与同时发生的ENSO冲击一样强烈.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 大气科学
- 海洋学
背景情况:
- 厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 是跨年气候变化的主要驱动因素.
- ENSO与外热带气候之间的同时远程连接已得到充分证实.
- 对于冬季的同时冲击,通常会研究热带外的反应.
研究的目的:
- 调查ENSO对外热带气候反应的1年延迟.
- 确定这些滞后的远程连接的强度和特征.
- 确定导致ENSO反应滞后的潜在机制.
主要方法:
- 对气候观察数据的分析.
- 对气候模型模拟的评估.
- 对大气角度动量异常的研究.
主要成果:
- 在观察和模型中发现了一个强大的1年延迟的外热带反应.
- 这种延迟响应的强度与同步的ENSO远程连接相美.
- 滞后反应表现出与同时反应相反的信号,影响北大西洋振荡 (NAO).
- 缓慢迁移的大气角动量异常被发现可以解释延迟反应的时间和信号.
结论:
- 滞后的ENSO远程连接是外热带气候变化的重要组成部分.
- 这些滞后效应对了解和预测季节性到跨年气候有影响.
- 这些发现挑战了关于ENSO远程连接的现有概念,并强调了延迟应对气候变化的重要性.
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