对各种一氧化碳的短期热层柱密度风险的不确定性量化
Yufeng Chi1, Yingying Wu2, Kai Wang3
1School of Information Engineering, Sanming University, Sanming, 365004, China.
Journal of environmental management
|October 3, 2024
概括
机器学习模型显著优于预测大气一氧化碳 (CO) 水平的传统方法. 像Bayes_CL这样的优化模型为环境和健康风险评估提供了更高的准确性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 大气化学 大气化学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 像一氧化碳 (CO) 这样的大气微量气体的短期风险会影响生态安全和人类健康.
- 碳排放风险评估的传统统计方法在准确性和可靠性方面存在局限性.
- 哨兵5P卫星数据提供了对环境监测至关重要的柱状CO测量.
研究的目的:
- 评估和比较传统ARIMA模型与各种机器学习 (ML) 模型对Sentinel 5P柱状CO水平的预测性能.
- 确定优化的ML解决方案,比传统方法提供更高的准确性和可靠性.
- 通过先进的预测建模,评估重大社会干扰,如COVID-19封锁对大气中的CO2水平的影响.
主要方法:
- 传统ARIMA模型与机器学习模型的比较分析,包括LightGBM和ConvLSTM2D.
- 开发和评估优化的ML模型,特别是贝叶斯剩余优化ConvLSTM2D LightGBM (Bayes_CL).
- 利用交叉验证 (CV),可视化和性能指标来评估预测准确性.
主要成果:
- 与ARIMA相比,机器学习模型在所有评估指标上显示出明显优异的性能.
- 优化的Bayes_CL模型获得了最高的CV得分 (R2 = 0.8),超过了LightGBM (R2 = 0.79),ConvLSTM2D (R2 = 0.75) 和ARIMA (R2 = 0.61).
- Bayes_CL准确量化了中国大陆在2023年底解除COVID-19封锁后的柱状CO2增加的2.4%.
结论:
- 机器学习模型,特别是像Bayes_CL这样的优化版本,是短期CO风险评估中传统方法的高效替代品.
- 这些发现支持改善政策制定,温室效应评估和人口健康风险评估,特别是在人类活动中断期间.
- 先进的ML技术通过提供更准确和可靠的大气CO预测来增强环境安全评估.
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