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预测美国西部每日消防人员部署趋势
Kevin Young1, Erin Belval2, Karin Riley3
1Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of North Carolina Wilmington, 601 South College Rd., Wilmington, North Carolina, 28403, USA.
Journal of environmental management
|October 3, 2024
概括
机器学习模型预测了消防人员的需求,考虑了结构受到威胁和烧毁的英等因素. 这有助于管理稀缺的资源,因为美国西部的野火威胁日益增加.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 计算机科学 计算机科学
- 资源管理 资源管理
背景情况:
- 美国西部的野火频率,规模和严重程度都在增加,使消防资源受到压力.
- 机器学习为在消防中建模复杂的资源使用提供了一个强大的工具.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估用于预测消防人员日常任务的机器学习模型.
- 确定影响野火管理中资源分配的关键驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了2012年至2020年的历史野火数据.
- 采用了分类提升 (CatBoost) 模型来训练预测模型.
- 为全体人员,地面人员和空中/空中人员开发模型.
主要成果:
- 人员分配的关键驱动因素包括受威胁的结构,烧毁的英,火灾的起源和火灾优先级.
- 环境因素,如准备水平和其他大型火灾的影响较小.
- 消防重点强调了外部因素对资源分配的影响.
结论:
- CatBoost模型为消防资源分配提供了有价值的历史背景.
- 这些模型可以为未来的资源管理挑战提供决策信息.
- 预测可以帮助解决由于气候变化引起的野火导致的资源短缺问题.
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